A spatial temporal decision framework for adaptation to sea level rise

摘要: There is a strong link between decision making and environmental stresses. Two dilemmas confront makers: how when to adapt sea level rise, due complexities of systems the changing nature process. This process inherently complex often involves many stakeholders with conflicting views. Considering complexity dynamic coastal systems, this paper introduces Spatial Temporal Decision framework assess vulnerability, adaptation alternatives SLR. The STD based upon combination of: System Dynamics modelling; Geographical Information Systems multicriteria analyses stakeholders' views using Analytical Hierarchy Process. For case study analyses, City Gold Coast located in Southeast Queensland, Australia has been selected. results vulnerability assessment indicate that, at end 100 year simulation period, approximately 6% landscape area will be gradually inundated over time, 0.5?cm rise per year. However, percentage vulnerable leapt about 34% for Scenario 2, 56% 3, which represent 1?cm 1.5?cm Using information obtained from assessments, three stakeholder groups (Politicians, Experts Residents) were consulted determine goal, criteria analyses. Analyses survey data reveal that across groups, Effectiveness Sustainability are highest priority.