Projected climate change causes loss and redistribution of genetic diversity in a model metapopulation of a medium-good disperser

摘要: Climate change causes species ranges to shift geographically as individuals colonise new suitable temperature zones or fail reproduce where climate conditions fall below tolerance levels. Little is known about the potential loss of genetic diversity in such dynamic ranges. We investigated level and distribution neutral shifting metapopulations during three scenarios increase projected for this century at various degrees weather variability. used an individual-based spatially explicit metapopulation model which were simulated move across a fragmented landscape following different scenarios. Although connectivity between habitat patches allowed species, modelled after middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopos medius, along with range, existing was lost under all This independent individuals. The explanation effect that only part original variation moved into newly colonised habitat. Under increased variability number alleles per locus persistently lower. However, pattern changes allele distributions zone shifts same Genetic differentiation populations had tendency range margins, but decreased again when population sizes time. Increased led around mean metapopulation. Our results illustrate usefulness more realistic models studying effects on metapopulations. They indicate biodiversity monitoring indices based occurrence abundance are not good proxy trend diversity. Further, underline importance conserving areas have existed long time modern refugia