Forecasting forest avalanches: a review of winter 2011/12

摘要: Mountain forests play a crucial role in avalanche mitigation by hindering formation. Nevertheless, due to the complex interactions between ecological conditions, terrain, snowpack and meteorological parameters protective effect of may be reduced. Therefore, socalled ‘forest avalanches’ do occur threat roads, railways ski-runs below forest. Due their sporadic occurrence, gaining experience forecasting forest avalanches is challenging for local forecasters. We describe period widespread high activity which occurred late February 2012. The weather situation was characterized sudden increase air temperature led wet glide snow general; however, number releases surprising safety authorities since they buried ski-runs. tested an approach relatively easy apply practitioners. method based on combination five mean temperature, difference, new height, depth sunshine duration measured automatic stations within days respective area. Two patterns probability are distinguished: (1) ‘new (Type I) (2) ‘other II) include old, avalanches. events 2012 were correctly detected model as Type II