Object-based evaluation of a numerical weather prediction model’s performance through forecast storm characteristic analysis
作者： Huaqing Cai , Robert E. Dumais
关键词: Meteorology 、 Quantitative precipitation forecast 、 Forecast skill 、 Integrated Forecast System 、 Climatology 、 Global Forecast System 、 Rapid update cycle 、 Forecast verification 、 Rapid Refresh 、 Computer science 、 Tropical cyclone forecast model
摘要: AbstractTraditional pixel-versus-pixel forecast evaluation scores such as the critical success index (CSI) provide a simple way to compare performances of different forecasts; however, they offer little information on how improve particular forecast. This paper strives demonstrate what additional an object-based tool Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) can in terms assessing numerical weather prediction models’ convective storm forecasts. Forecast attributes evaluated by MODE this include size, intensity, orientation, aspect ratio, complexity, and number storms. Three weeks High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s precipitation forecasts during summer 2010 over eastern two-thirds contiguous United States were example methodology. It is found that HRRR model was able characteristics rather well either ...
harvard.edu
sci-hub.se 参考文章(29)
M. Steiner, J. Pinto, M. Wolfson, S. Weygandt, W. Dupree, S. Benjamin, Advances in the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) ,(2010)
James O. Pinto, Joseph A. Grim, Matthias Steiner, Assessment of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’s Ability to Predict Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Object-Based Evaluation Weather and Forecasting. ,vol. 30, pp. 892- 913 ,(2015) , 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00118.1
Christopher Davis, Barbara Brown, Randy Bullock, Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part II: Application to Convective Rain Systems Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 134, pp. 1785- 1795 ,(2006) , 10.1175/MWR3146.1
Gregory Thompson, Roy M. Rasmussen, Kevin Manning, Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part I: Description and Sensitivity Analysis Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 132, pp. 519- 542 ,(2004) , 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0519:EFOWPU>2.0.CO;2
Gregor Skok, Joe Tribbia, Jože Rakovec, Object-Based Analysis and Verification of WRF Model Precipitation in the Low- and Midlatitude Pacific Ocean Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 138, pp. 4561- 4575 ,(2010) , 10.1175/2010MWR3472.1
Michael Dixon, Gerry Wiener, TITAN: Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting—A Radar-based Methodology Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. ,vol. 10, pp. 785- 797 ,(1993) , 10.1175/1520-0426(1993)010<0785:TTITAA>2.0.CO;2
Qingnong Xiao, Juanzhen Sun, Multiple-Radar Data Assimilation and Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP_2002 Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 135, pp. 3381- 3404 ,(2007) , 10.1175/MWR3471.1
Christopher A. Davis, Barbara G. Brown, Randy Bullock, John Halley-Gotway, The Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) Applied to Numerical Forecasts from the 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program Weather and Forecasting. ,vol. 24, pp. 1252- 1267 ,(2009) , 10.1175/2009WAF2222241.1
Jamie K. Wolff, Michelle Harrold, Tressa Fowler, John Halley Gotway, Louisa Nance, Barbara G. Brown, Beyond the Basics: Evaluating Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts Using Traditional, Spatial, and Object-Based Methods Weather and Forecasting. ,vol. 29, pp. 1451- 1472 ,(2014) , 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00135.1
Jonathan L. Case, Sujay V. Kumar, Jayanthi Srikishen, Gary J. Jedlovec, Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation over the Southeastern United States through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State Weather and Forecasting. ,vol. 26, pp. 785- 807 ,(2011) , 10.1175/2011WAF2222455.1