A Quantitative Study of the Accuracy of College Students' HIV Risk Estimates1
作者： Steven D. Pinkerton , Lynne I. Wagner-Raphael , Catherine A. Craun , Paul R. Abramson
DOI: 10.1111/J.1751-9861.2000.TB00061.X
关键词: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) 、 Hiv prevalence 、 Demography 、 Social psychology 、 Sex partners 、 Transmission (mechanics) 、 Medicine 、 Lifetime risk 、 Hiv risk 、 Epidemiology
摘要: A mathematical model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission was used to investigate the ability college students (N= 162) accurately estimate risk for a variety scenarios, which varied by HIV prevalence, number sex partners, acts per partner, and use condoms. In addition, respondents' perceptions their own lifetime acquiring were compared with faced similar referents. Participants badly overestimated per-act probabilities; all estimates differed from corresponding epidemiological factor 10 or more. It appears that inflated cumulative probability multiple intercourse driven excessive overestimates probabilities.
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