Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system

摘要: Abstract This paper presents a comparative analysis of electric, hydrogen and biofuel transitional pathways to future sustainable road transport in Iceland, country with renewable-based energy system. The is based on system-dynamics model Icelandic systems (UniSyD_IS). divided into four main modules: fuel supply, prices, refueling stations, demand. It simulates the long-term evolutions light heavy-duty vehicles, taking account supply utilization stages alternative fuels. Three scenarios are defined promote infrastructure for three cases hydrogen, electric vehicles. simulation results these compared terms different energy, economic, environmental indicators. findings indicate that electricity pathway has advantages over others reduction total demand, mitigation cost, profitability supply. would be most attractive emissions reduction, share fuels, consumer economic benefits. shows scenario could advantageous reducing import costs, although it highest cost vehicle ownership development.