Using Participatory Scenario Simulation to Plan for Conservation Under Climate Change in the Greater Everglades Landscape

作者: Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno , Michael Flaxman

DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-2549-2_3

关键词: Environmental planningParticipatory modelingEcosystem servicesClimate changeEnvironmental scienceDistribution (economics)Human settlementCitizen journalismPlan (drawing)Scenario planningEnvironmental resource management

摘要: Because changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species, it poses a substantial challenge conventional conservation planning approaches which rely on establishment fixed protected areas. Over next decades, change will also cause changes in human settlement patterns and demands various ecosystem services. New methods are needed deal with these complex phenomena. We believe that participatory spatial simulation have much offer under such circumstances, since they address both institutional technical needs. From an point view, exercises engage relevant stakeholders across agencies administrative jurisdictions. simulations performed provide actionable information, help prioritize potential actions generate landscape-scale strategies. This chapter presents case study applying approach challenges Greater Florida Everglades.

参考文章(32)
Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking Sloan Management Review. ,vol. 36, pp. 25- 40 ,(1995)
U. Cubash, C. Mauritzen, Treut H. Le, A. Mokssit, T. Peterson, Y. Ding, M. Prather, R. Somerville, Historical overview of climate change science ,(2007)
M. B. Lawrence, B. R. Jarvinen, An evaluation of the SLOSH storm-surge model Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ,vol. 66, pp. 1408- 1411 ,(1985)
Paul C. Stern, Harvey V. Fineberg, Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society ,(1996)
Barry Smit, An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability Climatic Change. ,vol. 45, pp. 223- 251 ,(2000) , 10.1023/A:1005661622966
M PARRY, C ROSENZWEIG, A IGLESIAS, G FISCHER, M LIVERMORE, Climate change and world food security: a new assessment Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions. ,vol. 9, ,(1999) , 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7
Sabine L. Perch-Nielsen, Michèle B. Bättig, Dieter Imboden, Exploring the link between climate change and migration Climatic Change. ,vol. 91, pp. 375- 393 ,(2008) , 10.1007/S10584-008-9416-Y