Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

摘要: Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival immature individuals is a critical component dynamics recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates juvenile survival (i.e., from independence first year) remains challenging, as immatures often difficult observe monitor individually the field. This particularly acute for seabirds, which juveniles stay at sea remain undetectable several years. In this work, we developed Bayesian integrated model estimate emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), other parameters including adult fecundity species. Using statistical method, simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data adults, annual number breeding females, fledglings collected Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, period 1971-1998. We also assessed how covariates known affect species foraging habitats prey [southern annular mode (SAM), ice concentration (SIC)] survival. Our analyses revealed that there was strong evidence positive effect SAM during rearing (SAMR) on findings suggest large-scale index affects body condition through its influence wind patterns, fast extent, distance open water. Estimating environmental major importance understand impacts variability change seabirds general make robust predictions impact marine predators.