Mapping the Potential Global Range of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys, with Particular Reference to New Zealand

摘要: Originating from Asia, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a significant pest of horticultural/agricultural crops, grapes, woody ornamental and herbaceous plants, also nuisance to people, due its overwintering behavior in human habitation. The global range this steadily increasing previous predictions environmental suitability have shown New Zealand be highly suitable. Due economic value horticultural agricultural industries economy, it vital understand potential risk within country. Global for BMSB was modeled using three algorithms resulting ensembled predict under current climatic conditions trajectories future low (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6) high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emissions both 2050 2070. Under conditions, models showed latitudes 25°–50° N, southern South America, southeast southwest regions Australia large areas Zealand. Modeling effect climate change on resulted southerly shift over time, particularly with trajectory. Currently, not established that remains case.