An Integrated Approach Using Data Mining and System Dynamics to Policy Design: Effects of Electric Vehicle Adoption on CO2 Emissions in Singapore

摘要: This study aims to demonstrate the utility of System dynamics (SD) thinking and data mining techniques as a policy analysis method help Singapore achieve its greenhouse gases (GHG) emission target part Paris climate agreement. We have developed system model called electric vehicle transportation (SET) analyzed long-term impacts various reduction strategies. Data were integrated into SD modelling, create more evidence-based decision-making framework opposed prevalent intuitive modelling approach ad hoc estimation variables. In this study, was utilized aid in parameter fitting well formulation model.We discovered that current policies put place encourage (EV) adoption are insufficient for electrify 50% population by year 2050. Despite not achieving target, projected CO2 still manages be significantly lower than 2005 business usual scenario, mainly because switching cleaner fossil fuel power generation curbing growth through Certificate Entitlement (COE). The results highlighted usefulness just analysis, but also helping stakeholders better understand complexity system.