Grid-Set-Match, an agent-based simulation model, predicts fruit set for the lowbush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium) agroecosystem

摘要: Abstract Fruit set, the proportion of flowers whose ovaries successfully bear fruit, is product dozens processes, many which are difficult to study and manipulate in situ . To establish these processes most important lowbush blueberry ( Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton; Ericaceae) agroecosystem, an agent-based simulation model, Grid-Set-Match , with temporal spatial elements was constructed using R software package. Pollination ecology data from this system were used parameterize model. Then, results 1,000 iterations model compared field fruit set a survey 162 fields 1993 2015 as well conducted 2013 2015. Predicted for average 0.366 according Based on currently available data, estimate appears realistic, although it may be slight underestimate part because variability pollinator densities between real higher than accounted for. A multiple regression indicated that, across sample clones created by under default parameter settings, declined significantly genetic load clone’s neighbors increased self-pollination rate increased, latter effect being ∼20% stronger former. As such, future research should directed towards understanding better managing factors that influence rates self- vs. cross-pollination system, such pollen carryover, intra-hive transfer, flight distances consecutively visited flowers.