Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

摘要: We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution wealth, geopolitical crises. The is complex system the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate shape processes transformation. Surprise an intrinsic aspect change, particular when it takes place at accelerating pace with high degrees volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within condition post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such AI renewable energy systems add complexity societies, thus VUCA post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on probable even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid systematic anticipation wild cards black swans, analysis weak signals. Foresight also focus discontinuities broader phenomena developments instead single events. Energy issue. Without there no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account huge ecological social costs present system, need new emission-free, cost-effective, democratised obvious. An transformation reach 100% envisioned four transformational neo-carbon scenarios. increasingly societal cultural issue above all security As regards security, various sudden events surprises could play major role. New themselves, other technologies, nudge unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe resilience, anti-fragility discontinuity these transformational, results futures clinique where scenarios were tested presented. Implications seeks move towards based society, explored.