How important are realistic building lifespan assumptions for material stock and demolition waste accounts

摘要: Abstract Accurate assessments of construction materials stocked in the built environment have received increased attention Industrial Ecology literature over past few years. Many recent models that estimate building material inflows, stock accumulation and end-of-life waste, however, rely on simplistic assumptions about lifespan infrastructure. While several probability distributions been proposed (normal, Weibull, log-normal, so on) there is no agreement which model best suited for modelling at urban national levels. In this study we introduce an analysis hazard rate buildings discuss alternative distribution functions to lifespan, testing fit five commonly used real data from cities Nagoya (Japan), Wakayama Salford (UK). The results highlight how with fast replacement rates are overall modelled by right-skewed distributions, but single cohort levels express independent behaviours based their characteristics. We investigate sensitivity a top-down choice different input parameters uncertainties. show result very similar level, large impacts calculated demolition waste flows. Differences more pronounced certain will significantly affect calculation average lifetime. Our suggest accounts high reliability, only weakly affected one another. For cities, it beneficial use characteristics analysed, regard density Stock research would profit future bottom-up into lifespans validate estimation procedures.