Individual differences in reverse hindsight bias: I never thought something like Chernobyl would happen. Did I?

摘要: Hindsight bias was studied in the context of accident Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor relates to motivation process information, need for cognition, expected moderate occurrence hindsight bias. Probability estimates many casualties due use The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before Chernobyl. These compared with similar made by same five after accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic However, direction contrary expectations. In hindsight, gave lower probabilities than they actually did results reverse As hypothesized, cognition moderates bias: low and medium express bias, while high do not. High also show higher literal consistency between measurements, supports memory explanation moderating effect cognition.