Predicting the severity of Spodoptera exempta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) outbreak seasons in Tanzania.
作者： A.W. Harvey , G.A. Mallya
DOI: 10.1017/S0007485300032958
关键词: Biology 、 Veterinary medicine 、 Noctuidae 、 Ecology 、 Spodoptera 、 Outbreak 、 African armyworm 、 Seasonality 、 Lepidoptera genitalia 、 Tanzania 、 PEST analysis
摘要: Outbreaks of the African armyworm, Spodoptera exempta (Walker), in East Africa follow a seasonal pattern related to movement inter-tropical convergence zone. The season typically begins central Tanzania with primary outbreaks that coincide arrival rains. An analysis 27 years' light trap records shows high negative correlation between total number moths caught by traps during over whole country and rain days November Tanzania. Out seasons, 22 could have been correctly predicted as ‘light’ or ‘severe’, using rainfall at one station, Dodoma, time give two months' warning before peak season.
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