Forecasting the severity of armyworm seasons in East Africa from early season rainfall
作者： M. R. Tucker
DOI: 10.1017/S1742758400001429
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摘要: The relationship between seasonal numbers of outbreaks African armyworm ( Spodoptera exempta ) in Kenya and Tanzania, early season rainfall source areas has been examined using records for 21 seasons. Significant inverse relationships were found rains the Kisumu area, Tanzania Morogoro Mtwara areas. Total outbreak significantly inversely related to 8 combined. These results suggest that totals, either from specific likely or countrywide, could be used January give a forecast during rest season. Seasons with more than average often follow poor visa versa. Further work is needed establish biological causes this apparent relationship.
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