Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer-aided runoff models - preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale

摘要: The northern mid-high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected see marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer-aided conceptual runoff models investigate such impacts mesoscale (749 km2) Scotland. encompasses both sub-arctic montane sub-catchments with high precipitation significant snow influence drier, warmer lowland sub-catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator project future climate. This was based synthetic temperature time series generated from three change scenarios under low, medium greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, examined impact of at monthly, seasonal annual scales flow regimes upland using appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. results reveal landscape-specific sensitivity change. uplands, higher temperatures result diminishing which increases winter flows, concomitant decline spring flows as melt reduces. lowlands, air re-distribution towards autumn lead strongly reduced summer despite increasing precipitation. integration outlet moderates these extremes expected headwaters. highlights intimate connection between dynamics characteristics reflect evolution. It also indicates spatial variability climatic forcing combined differential large heterogeneous catchments can resilience integrated response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.