Insecticide resistance and malaria control: A genetics-epidemiology modeling approach.

摘要: Abstract Malaria, a deadly infectious disease caused by the protozoan Plasmodium, remains major public health menace affecting at least half human race. Although large-scale usage of insecticides-based control measures, notably long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), have led to dramatic reduction burden this global scourge between period 2000 2015, fact that malaria vector (adult female Anopheles mosquito) has become resistant all currently-available insecticides potentially makes current laudable effort eradicate 2040 more challenging. This study presents novel mathematical model, which couples epidemiology with mosquito population genetics, for assessing impact resistance on epidemiology. Numerical simulations using data relevant transmission dynamics in Jimma Zone Southwestern Ethiopia, show implementation strategy based LLINs alone can lead effective malaria, while also effectively managing insecticide resistance, if coverage community is high enough (over 90%). It further shown combining IRS (both reduced realistically-attainable levels) aforementioned management their levels lie within certain window LLINs-IRS parameter space (this result generally holds regardless whether or not larviciding implemented community). The identifies three key parameters model negatively affect size window, namely related level larviciding, number new adult mosquitoes are females initial frequency allele community. For an additional increase values may shrinkage (thereby causing failure control).