Sea-Level Change: The Expected Economic Cost of Protection Or Abandonment in the United States

摘要: Three distinct models from earlier work are combined to: (1) produce probabilistically weighted scenarios of greenhouse-gas-induced sea-level rise; (2) support estimates the expected discounted value cost rise to developed coastline United States, and (3) develop reduced-form functional relationship between those costs anticipated rise, protection, rate property-value appreciation. Four alternative representations future sulfate emissions, each tied consistently forces that drive initial trajectories greenhouse gases, considered. Sea-level has a nonlinear effect on in all cases, but estimated sensitivity falls short being quadratic. The mean estimate for across States is approximately $2 billion (with 3% real discount rate), range uncertainty around enormous; indeed, 10th 90th percentile run less than $0.2 up more $4.6 billion. In addition, very sensitive associated emissions; it is, specifically, diminished by nearly 25% when base-case emission considered 55% high-sulfate allowed.