Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

摘要: Abstract Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche biophysical process models) constitute a large uncertainty projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how biological traits heterogeneity affect used species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale demography competition, landscape-scale dispersal disturbances, regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the shifts four representative distinct central hardwood region United States. Our results suggested that capacity, maturation age) were important for determining Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared perfect conditions. The average ranged from 24 200 m year−1 under climate change scenarios, implying many may able keep up because limited long generation time, heterogeneity. suggest should include demographic fecundity, colonization), age), habitat fragmentation) improve predictions response changing climates.