Population dynamics has greater effects than climate change on tree species distribution in a temperate forest region

摘要: Aim: Population dynamics and disturbances have often been simplified or ignored when predicting regional‐scale tree species distributions in response to climate change current climate‐distribution models (e.g., niche biophysical process models). We determined the relative importance of population dynamics, harvest, change, their interaction affecting distribution changes. Location: Central Hardwood Forest Region United States. Major taxa studied: Tree species. Methods: used a forest dynamic model, LANDIS PRO that accounted for predict species’ at 270 m resolution from 2000 2300. quantified these factors using repeated measures analysis variance. further investigated effects each factor on changes by summarizing extinction colonization rates. Results: On average, was most important harvest more than 2100 whereas By end 21st century, expanded irrespective any scenario. 2300, northern, some southern, widely distributed contracted while southern species, few northern under warmer climates with harvest. Harvest accelerated ameliorated contractions expansions were negatively positively affected change. Main conclusions: Our results suggest can be thus should explicitly included future distributions. Understanding underlying mechanisms drive will enable better predictions