Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

摘要: Summary 1. A large proportion of the world’s biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate interaction between these two threats using empirical data. 2. Here, we interactions change land-use in future distribution 23 dominant tree species mainland Spain. We simulated changes up to year 2100 a climate-dependent Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model, parameterized with colonization extinction events recorded 46 596 survey plots. 3. estimated 17 out expanding hence not at equilibrium climate. will make occupancy 15 be lower than expected if climate, habitat, remained stable (baseline scenario). 4. Climate change, when combined 20% was reduce occupancies (relative baseline projections) an average 23% spatially clumped, 35% it scattered. If occurred areas already impacted human activities, would reduced 26%. Landuse leading gain (i.e. creation through reforestation) could slightly mitigate effects but increment changedriven losses only 3%. 5. Synthesis applications. The distributions most common Spain expanding, threatens this expansion 18% for studied species. Moreover, simultaneously lost, all them further, variation depending on spatial pattern lost habitats. did detect synergies loss. effect (with loss) 5–13% less what were additive. Importantly, reforestation partially offset negative complete mitigation require increase forested land 80%, prioritization territories activities.