Predicting local extinctions of Amazonian vertebrates in forest islands created by a mega dam

摘要: Abstract Hydropower projects are rapidly expanding across lowland Amazonia, driving the conversion of large tracts once-continuous forests into archipelagos embedded within a vast open-water matrix. Forest vertebrate populations thus become stranded in habitat islands, with their persistence governed by combination species life-history traits, patch, and landscape context. We investigate patterns extinction 34 arboreal terrestrial three continuous forest sites 37 land-bridge islands one largest South American hydroelectric reservoirs, based on camera trapping, line-transect censuses, sign surveys, armadillo burrow counts. area was best predictor persistence, so we classified all levels vulnerability to insularization, most defined as ‘area-sensitive’. However, island occupancy decisively determined individual wide-ranging poor dispersers showing high local rates. detected higher rates compared other Neotropical fragmented landscapes, suggesting that this is critically attributed absence hunting pressure at Balbina. Nevertheless, have been driven majority which largely defaunated. predicted composition 3546 reservoir, indicating only ⩽2% continue harbour least 75% species. To minimise loss diversity, future dam tropical forests, if unavoidable, should consider geographic location structure maximise both size connectivity, set aside strictly protected reserves reservoir areas.