The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

摘要: Abstract The production and the depletion of mineral resources, especially oil fossil fuels, has been an object extensive predictive modeling. These predictions are often derived from Hubbert's model which is based on fitting experimental data to a symmetric, bell-shaped curve. Although this describes several historical cases, in particular, crude lower 48 US states, not all theoretical models for “mineral economy” symmetric curves. Also, much attention dedicated so far mechanisms lead such behavior. In scarce factors may make curve asymmetric, e.g. decline more abrupt than growth. present paper, author uses stochastic examine affecting these phenomena. results simulations indicate that curves non-renewable resource be asymmetric dependence as search strategy or presence technological improvements. Considering worldwide production, after-peak downward slope might turn out considerably steep upward slope, something could have unpleasant effects economy.