Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves

摘要: The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes in was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) order reconstruct the past investigate potential future scenarios. investigations for input data show that mineable reserves are large, but finite. We get average value ultimately recoverable reserve be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. at present is 50 million per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 people combined a decline cheap fossil fuels, may long perspective more expensive product than today. Should event need substituting significant part copper, iron, steel stainless arise, time scarcity could become issue within next four decades. Ultimately, continuation limited by access energy. Whereas primary go through peak decades, will not reach before end century, because recycling stock society. suggests level 2014 sometime around 2250, or 230 years into future.