An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves

摘要: A quantitative analytical method, using a spreadsheet, has been developed that allows the determination of values three parameters characterize Hubbert-style Gaussian error curve best fits conventional oil production data both for U.S. and world. The are total area under Gaussian, which represents estimated ultimate (oil) recovery (EUR), date maximum curve, half-width curve. “best fit” is determined by adjusting to minimize root mean square deviation (RMSD) between Gaussian. sensitivity fit changes in indicated an exploration rate at RMSD increases as varied from give fit. results analysis follows: (1) size EUR suggested be 0.222 × 1012 barrels (0.222 trillion bbl) approximately three-fourths appears have produced through 1995; (2) if world 2.0 bbl (2.0 bbl), little less than half this 1995, 2004; (3) each increase one billion beyond value can expected result delay 5.5 days production; (4) alternate scenarios presented EURs 3.0 4.0 bbl.