Plants' native distributions do not reflect climatic tolerance

摘要: Aim Biogeographers have long known that plant species do not fully encompass their fundamental niche. Nonetheless, in practice, distribution modelling assumes distributions represent a reasonable approximation of environmental tolerance. For ecological forecasting, projections habitat loss due to climate change assume many will be unable tolerate conditions outside those found within current distributional ranges. We aim test how well occurrences the native range approximate climatic which can survive. Location Continental USA. Methods We compared between US versus non-native ranges using 144 non-invasive species. quantified differences January minimum temperature, July maximum temperature and annual precipitation as indicators also modelled potential throughout based on total expanded tolerance translates into predicted geographical range. Results Most (86%) had climates described by distributions. 80 with lower temperatures at occurrences, median expansion was −2.9 °C. Similarly, for 90 −23 cm. Broader 35%, smaller showing larger expansions range. Main conclusions Our results show plants' strongly underestimate tolerance, leading models underpredict range. The narrow appears most prone underestimation. These findings suggest plants able persist in situ far longer than projected models.