Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

摘要: Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records presence for Picea abies, Abies alba Fagus sylvatica six climatic variables period to 1000 yr bp. To measure contribution each 1000-year step total niche (the measured by pooling all data), employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over entire range possible climates. Then both partial niches from single frames into PCA space, tested if were more similar than random. Using ensemble forecasting approach, SDMs frame pooled database. climate evaluated results against pollen data. also future. Results  Niche similarity between total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant increased through time. gave different climate, providing evidence change realized Moreover, they predicted limited suitability compared total-SDMs. The same obtained future climates. Main conclusions  differed climates considering past Building represents way forward better understanding species' its ecology changing climate.