Modelling future scenarios to improve woodland landscapes for birds in the Mediterranean

摘要: Abstract Agro-silvo-pastoral systems occupy much of the Mediterranean region. Promoting landscape heterogeneity in these is a potentially valuable management strategy to enhance woodland biodiversity. We evaluated effects on birds managing patches olive groves and riparian galleries promote Portugal. For large cork oak we (i) used nesting season bird density estimates habitat descriptors generate suitability models for each studied species; (ii) identified areas suitable establish new groves, this information (iii) scenarios maps with different levels cover both habitats. Finally, (iv) model species was applied over future estimate potential changes its distribution abundance. Future greater availability vegetation resulted major increases projected populations seven 21 species, but gains were predicted just three species. Bird increase most recovery are presently among least abundant Restoring would be highly beneficial birds, whereas promoting traditional have lower conservation implications. The methodology proved helpful select particularly appropriate management, simulated landscapes incorporating predict population spatial responses scenarios, thus having good guide management. Moreover, our results indicate that simple measures should substantial positive community woodlands, without compromising essential economic return system.