Bayesian shared frailty models for regional inference about wildlife survival

摘要: The estimation of survival is an essential but difficult task important for developing rigorous conservation programs. Radio telemetry studies wildlife are often characterized by small sample sizes and high rates censoring. In cases where multiple radio a species exist, shared frailty models offer the ability to combine data from improve precision estimates. We used Bayesian analysis examine adult females giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in Sacramento Valley, California, USA, effects individual habitat characteristics on daily risk mortality. Posterior mean annual probability was 0.61 [95% credible interval (CI) = 0.41–0.79]. mortality female gartersnakes while terrestrial habitats 0.38 (0.09–0.89) times as great when they inhabited aquatic habitats. Although 95% CIs hazard ratios other covariates included one, sites varied substantially effect linear habitats, which appear have context-dependent survival. Assessing with allows prediction probabilities at novel identifies regional context-specific risks that can be targeted action.