Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study

摘要: With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests carbon prices obtained from models be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of standard UK Times Model (UKTM), foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost model, its version: My-UKTM. This demonstrates tandem their equivalents can provide valuable indications policy design.