Socio-hydrological modelling to assess reliability of an urban water system under formal-informal supply dynamics

摘要: Increasing water scarcity in developing world cities combined with poor performance of supply systems has led to an increasing reliance on informal systems. Although the availability provides a coping mechanism that enables consumers be resilient failures supply, longer-term effects formal (FWSS) are uncertain, potential reduction tariff recovery (RT), and turn service provider’s financial sustainability. This motivates analysis coevolving dynamics feedbacks involved where components co-exist. Investigating Hyderabad, Pakistan as case study, dynamic socio-hydrologic system model is built, comprised system’s fund balance, consumer behaviour infrastructure conditions. Simulations executed monthly basis at household level for 100-year period (2007–2107) using data available from years 2007–2017. Demand shift observed weakly associated lower rates, income major predictor. The FWSS’s predominantly driven by condition, appears less sensitive generate sufficient revenue.