A Smoking-based Carcinogenesis Model for Lung Cancer Risk Prediction
作者： Millennia Foy , Margaret R. Spitz , Marek Kimmel , Olga Y. Gorlova
DOI: 10.1002/IJC.25834
关键词: Risk factor 、 Cancer 、 Prospective cohort study 、 Cohort 、 Lung cancer 、 Oncology 、 Case-control study 、 Gynecology 、 Caret 、 Internal medicine 、 Mortality rate 、 Medicine
摘要: Lung cancer is the leading killer for both men and women worldwide. Over 80% of lung cancers are attributed to smoking. In this analysis, authors propose use a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model predict an individual's risk based on gender smoking history. The TSCE traditionally fitted prospective cohort data. Here, describe new method that allows reconstruction data from combination factor obtained case-control study, tabled incidence/mortality rate data, discuss alternative approaches. applied fit validated against independent control arm chemoprevention trial, CARET, where it accurately predicted number deaths observed.
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