Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals
作者： Tariq Halasa , Anette Boklund , Anette Bøtner , Nils Toft , Hans-Hermann Thulke
关键词: African swine fever 、 Medicine 、 Unit size 、 Subclinical infection 、 High transmission 、 Transmission rate 、 Outbreak 、 Virus 、 Veterinary medicine
摘要: To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and impact size on ASF spread, simulation model was created. In model, an animal can be in one following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals infectious during subclinical stage are fully clinical stage. virus (ASFV) infection through residues dead animals slurries also modeled exponentially fading-out pattern. Low high transmission rates for ASFV were tested model. Robustness analysis carried out order to uncertain parameters predictions. The results showed that disease may fade without major outbreak. Furthermore, they is dependent infectiousness animals, rate virus, importantly size. Moreover, increasing duration latent stages resulted longer time out. proposed simple robust tool simulating house taking into account dynamics implemented models between herds.
frontiersin.org
core.ac.uk
sci-hub.se 参考文章(32)
J. M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno, L. Mur, B. Martínez-López, African swine fever: an epidemiological update. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. ,vol. 59, pp. 27- 35 ,(2012) , 10.1111/J.1865-1682.2011.01293.X
K. Davies, L. C. Goatley, C. Guinat, C. L. Netherton, S. Gubbins, L. K. Dixon, A. L. Reis, Survival of African Swine Fever Virus in Excretions from Pigs Experimentally Infected with the Georgia 2007/1 Isolate. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. ,vol. 64, pp. 425- 431 ,(2017) , 10.1111/TBED.12381
M.A. Stevenson, R.L. Sanson, M.W. Stern, B.D. O’Leary, M. Sujau, N. Moles-Benfell, R.S. Morris, InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. ,vol. 109, pp. 10- 24 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.PREVETMED.2012.08.015
A. Boklund, T. Halasa, L.E. Christiansen, C. Enøe, Comparing control strategies against foot-and-mouth disease: will vaccination be cost-effective in Denmark? Preventive Veterinary Medicine. ,vol. 111, pp. 206- 219 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.PREVETMED.2013.05.008
F.I. Korennoy, V.M. Gulenkin, J.B. Malone, C.N. Mores, S.A. Dudnikov, M.A. Stevenson, Spatio-temporal modeling of the African swine fever epidemic in the Russian Federation, 2007–2012 Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. ,vol. 11, pp. 135- 141 ,(2014) , 10.1016/J.SSTE.2014.04.002
B. Martínez-López, B. Ivorra, A.M. Ramos, J.M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno, A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model. Veterinary Microbiology. ,vol. 147, pp. 300- 309 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.VETMIC.2010.07.009
H.C. de Carvalho Ferreira, E. Weesendorp, S. Quak, J.A. Stegeman, W.L.A. Loeffen, Quantification of airborne African swine fever virus after experimental infection. Veterinary Microbiology. ,vol. 165, pp. 243- 251 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.VETMIC.2013.03.007
Anette Bøtner, Graham J. Belsham, Virus survival in slurry: analysis of the stability of foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever, bovine viral diarrhoea and swine influenza viruses. Veterinary Microbiology. ,vol. 157, pp. 41- 49 ,(2012) , 10.1016/J.VETMIC.2011.12.010
B. Martínez-López, B. Ivorra, D. Ngom, A.M. Ramos, J.M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno, A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model Veterinary Microbiology. ,vol. 155, pp. 21- 32 ,(2012) , 10.1016/J.VETMIC.2011.08.008
Hans-Hermann Thulke, Dirk Eisinger, Martin Beer, The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. ,vol. 99, pp. 28- 37 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.PREVETMED.2011.01.002