Simulating the epidemiological and economic effects of an African swine fever epidemic in industrialized swine populations.

摘要: Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with considerable impact on animal health and currently one of the most important emerging diseases domestic pigs. ASF was introduced into Georgia in 2007 subsequently spread to Russian Federation several Eastern European countries. Consequently, there non-negligible risk towards Western Europe. Therefore it develop tools improve our understanding control for contingency planning. A stochastic dynamic spatial model (DTU-DADS) adjusted simulate virus between herds exemplified by Danish population. simulated via movement, low- or medium-risk contacts local spread. Each epidemic initiated randomly selected herd – either nucleus herd, sow multiple simultaneously. sensitivity analysis conducted input parameters. Given inputs assumptions model, epidemics Denmark are predicted be small, affecting about 14 worst-case scenario. The duration an vary from 1 76 days. Substantial economic damages predicted, median direct costs export losses €12 €349 million, respectively, when were herds. resulted 0 2 new infected varying 5 herds, depending index type.