Modeling and evaluation of ear tag loss in black bears

摘要: Demographic models that use marked animals to estimate survival rates and population size assume no tag loss occurs, otherwise estimates are biased. Most studies of have assumed 1 was independent the other, as did a prior study ear in Pennsylvania black bears (Ursus americanus). We used permanently (tattooed) model so we could identify recovered missing both tags, thus test independence assumption. found male increased with time between tagging recovery. Also, for males, probability losing second greater if it had already lost an tag. For tagging-recovery interval 0.5-<1 year, estimated 3% males tags (95% CI = 2-4%); however, 4.5-<5.5 years, 56% 42-75%). selected same type females, but were much lower. 2% females intervals year 1-4%), 5% 4-<5 years 1-18%). Comparison without correction suggests uncorrected annual may be biased -6% -1% females. Black long-lived species high males. Estimates or mark-recapture should either incorporate model, especially data from short (≤1 yr) minimize bias loss. In addition individuals studies, recommend researchers tattoo on inner sides upper lip.