The surprisingly small but increasing role of international agricultural trade on the European Union’s dependence on mineral phosphorus fertiliser

摘要: Phosphorus (P) is subject to global management challenges due its importance both food security and water quality. The European Union (EU) has promoted policies limit fertiliser over-application protect quality for more than 20 years, helping reduce P use. Over this time period, the EU has, however, become reliant on imported agricultural products. These products require be used in distant countries grow crops that will ultimately feed people livestock. As such, these imports represent a displacement of demand, possibly allowing Europe decrease apparent footprint by moving use locations outside EU. We investigated effect better understand whether EU's over resulted from demand being 'outsourced' other or it truly represented decline demand. To do this, we quantified 'virtual flow' defined as amount mineral applied soils non-EU support product found virtual flow 0.55 Tg P/yr 1995 that, surprisingly, decreased 0.50 2009. results were contrary our hypothesis trade increases would help domestic outsourcing abroad. Still, contribution flows total increased 40% 2009 dramatic Europe: 1995, was equivalent 32% domestically consumption but jumped 53% Soybean palm tree South America East Asia contributed most flow. demonstrate although have successfully dependence fertiliser, order continue potential supply depletion consequences losses waterways may think about trading partners.