Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system

摘要: The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of global system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple production and trade data from 1992–2009 analyse changing properties system. Over 18 year study period, show that is relatively homogeneous (85% countries have low or marginal self-sufficiency) increases complexity, with number wheat rice connections doubling flows increasing by 42 90%, respectively. increased connectivity within these networks suggest vulnerable systemic disruptions, especially considering tendency for exporting switch non-exporting states during times scarcity markets. To test this hypothesis, superimpose continental-scale disruptions on networks. We find greater absolute reductions exports along larger losses network as evolve due European Asian production. Importantly, our findings indicate least developed suffer import more connected through their dependence imports foods (due large-scale disturbances): mean (median) percentages supply are 8.9% (3.8%) 1992–1996, 11% (5.7%) 2005–2009. same intervals, increase 8.2% (2.2%) 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates policy efforts should focus balancing efficiency international (and its associated specialization) resilience domestic demand diversity.