Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98

摘要: Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation1,2,3,4. But extent which, and how, internal coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics determine state system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis strong seasonal anomalies sea surface temperatures, heights, precipitation winds that occurred 1997–98, compare results with record climate over past 40 years. We conclude 1997–98 anomalies—in spite coincidence Oscillation event—may primarily be an expression dynamics, rather than direct response influences. propose mechanism interaction governing event may represent characteristic mode system. In Pacific Ocean, identification has led successful predictions Nino5; if proposed proves robust, there similar potential for predictability region.