Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns.

摘要: Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries can lead to large economic costs and livestock losses but the use of vaccination has been contentious, partly due uncertainty about emergency FMD vaccination. Value information methods be applied outbreak problems such as order investigate performance improvement from resolving uncertainties. Here we calculate expected value vaccine efficacy, time delay immunity after daily capacity for a hypothetical UK. If it were possible resolve all prior introduction control, could expect savings £55 million cost, 221,900 culled 4.3 days duration. All strategies found preferable culling only strategy. However, optimal radius was highly dependent upon management objectives. We that by surrounding would return over 85% above savings, regardless objective. It may before an outbreak, this enable decision makers select control action via careful contingency planning.