Management of bovine tuberculosis in brushtail possums in New Zealand: predictions from a spatially explicit, individual‐based model

摘要: Summary 1. Bovine tuberculosis Mycobacterium bovis (Tb) in brushtail possums Trichosurus vulpecula New Zealand continues to pose a threat the livestock industry. While significant reductions cattle reactor rates have been achieved by widespread possum control, there is still need for improvement, particularly relation limiting further spread of disease. 2. A recently developed oral Tb vaccine based on bacille Calmette–Guerin (BCG) offers possible alternative poison baiting disease control possums. In addition, ongoing development orally delivered fertility vaccines (FC) as an method control. However, some doubt about whether strategies BCG or FC can offer cost-effective solutions possums. 3. We spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) address perceived shortcomings existing non-spatial models, their failure realistically spatial scale transmission. The IBM was also used compare cost-effectiveness using and combined BCG/FC lethal particular, we explored effectiveness contain localized outbreak. 4. Considering cumulative cost outbreak, most strategy initial cull with both applied every 3 years. culling/BCG/FC required only 2- 3-km buffer around outbreak site achieve successful containment. By comparison, that alone were not they at least 5-km containment. 5. Synthesis applications. Current rely heavily techniques, but public antipathy use toxicants pest Strategies vaccination BCG, BCG/FC, combination single population local eradication containing spread. Such would greatly reduce repeated application toxicants.