Planning for the persistence of river biodiversity: exploring alternative futures using process‐based models

摘要: Summary 1. Planning for the conservation of river biodiversity must involve a wide range management options and account complication that effects many actions are spatially removed from these actions. Reserve design algorithms widely used in planning today not well equipped to address such complexities. 2. We process-based models estimate expected persistence under alternative catchment-wide scenarios applied it Hunter Region (37 000 km²) southeastern Australia. 3. The biological condition 12 197 subcatchments was estimated using multiple linear regression model related assessments integrity macroinvertebrate assemblages human-induced disturbances at sites. best-fit (R2 = 0.76) measures both local as elevation distance source predictor variables. Based on outputs this model, we substantial loss had occurred some parts coastal fringes lower larger systems. most affected type small, low-gradient streams. 4. predicted together with types based abiotic attributes index (BDI). 5. A priority value each subcatchment calculated different by changing disturbance values calculating resulting marginal change regional BDI. Maps were thereby created three priority: catchment protection priority, restoration section priority. 6. high mostly uplands within protected areas. sections included lowland rivers around areas upland headwater streams. Subcatchments or floodplains. 7. This approach may be particularly suited guide integrated implementation place-based strategies proposed freshwaters: focal areas, critical zones zones.