Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: An example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

摘要: Abstract There are a growing number of large-scale freshwater ecological restoration projects world-wide. Assessments the benefits and costs often exclude an analysis uncertainty in modelled outcomes. To address this shortcoming we explicitly model uncertainties associated with measures ecosystem health estuary Murray–Darling Basin, Australia how those may change implementation Basin-wide Plan to recover water improve health. Specifically, compare two metrics – one simple more complex manage end-of-system flow requirements for asset internationally important Coorong saline wetlands. Our risk assessment confirms that conditions likely Basin Plan; however, there risks Type III error (where correct answer is found wrong question) using metric adaptive management.