Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways
作者： Ken Oshiro , Mikiko Kainuma , Toshihiko Masui
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2017.09.003
关键词: Operations management 、 Climate change mitigation 、 Nuclear power 、 Baseline (configuration management) 、 Scenario analysis 、 Efficient energy use 、 Greenhouse gas 、 Carbon price 、 Environmental economics 、 Renewable energy 、 Engineering
摘要: Abstract This study assesses implications of the target reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 included Japan's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for long-term low emission pathways toward 2050, as well feasibility itself using AIM/Enduse model. Scenario analysis suggests that implementing INDC could consolidate a transition from baseline trajectory, which is mainly derived improved energy efficiency and decarbonization electricity. The still technically feasible even if nuclear power constrained or totally phased-out 2030, based on additional deployment renewable energies. However, these incur carbon price hikes over 160 US$/t-CO2, need effective policy supports. Over long-term, meet both 2050 targets also appear feasible, provisional upon efforts being made beyond target. These require huge rapid transformation system post-2030, including large-scale variable energies capture storage, improvement electrification. Early actions policies before RD&D innovative technologies development market would be needed commercial realization options.
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