Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

摘要: Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after 2011 earthquake, availability and progress of energy technologies, as well security concerns light a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight these challenges needs to be clarified terms system macroeconomic impacts. We applied general equilibrium economic model assess impacts an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering alternative scenarios for deployment, technology availability, end use efficiency, price fossil fuels. found that achieving was feasible all scenarios, considerable reductions total consumption (39%–50%), higher shares low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared 15%), larger electricity final supply (51%–58% 42%). limiting (3.5% GDP loss) were small lack carbon capture storage (CCS) (6.4% loss). Mitigation led improvement indicators (trade diversity primary sources) even absence power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates expanding range renewable resources can lower long term considerably, thus further depth is needed this aspect. Key insights For Japan, emissions without or CCS. impact such largest CCS, smallest Energy improved baseline.