Communicating uncertainties in natural hazard forecasts

摘要: Natural hazards research seeks to help society develop strategies that appropriately balance risks and mitigation costs in addressing potential imminent threats possible longer-term hazards. However, because scientists have only limited knowledge of the future, they must also communicate uncertainties what know about How do so has been subject extensive recent discussion [Sarewitz et al., 2000; Oreskes, Pilkey Pilkey-Jarvis, 2006]. One approach is General Colin Powell's charge intelligence officers [Powell, 2012]: “Tell me you know. Tell don't Then tell think. Always distinguish which which.” In dealing with natural hazards, last point can be modified “which why.” To illustrate this approach, it helpful consider some successful unsuccessful examples [Stein, 2010; Stein 2012].