Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs
作者： Ulrike Löptien , Olga Zolina , Sergey Gulev , Mojib Latif , Vladimir Soloviov
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-007-0355-5
关键词: Cyclone 、 ECHAM 、 Tropical cyclone 、 Climate model 、 Extratropical cyclone 、 Global warming 、 Cyclogenesis 、 Climatology 、 Environmental science 、 Atmospheric sciences 、 Climate change
摘要: Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, results for present climate (1978–1999) compared with ERA-40 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement representation of cyclone to The total number cyclones, intensity, propagation velocity deepening rates found be much more realistic relative Then, changes extra tropical characteristics between day future under emission-scenario A1B using ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 2170–2190, which were considered representative various conditions. cyclones does not undergo significant warmer climate. However, regional numbers frequencies evident. One example Mediterranean region where summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable also (deepening rate velocity). Cyclones scenario tend move slower their becomes stronger, while intensity change Generally, our do support hypothesis enhanced storminess
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