Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

作者: C. Pahl-Wostl , N. Isendahl , A. Dewulf

DOI:

关键词: HeuristicsPaceManagement scienceEngineeringSocial learningStakeholderWater resourcesFraming (construction)

摘要: Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it facing more and new uncertainties since pace dimension changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating likely to increase even in the future. Hence crucial find pragmatic ways deal these management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty management based on either intuition, heuristics experience managers or expert assessments all which only limited use for practice. We argue an analytical yet approach enable practitioners a explicit systematic way allow better informed decisions. Our concept framing, referring different people make sense world applied tested recently developed parameters that aim shed light framing two sub-basins Rhine. present discuss results series stakeholder interactions basins aimed at developing strategies improving dealing The synthesized cross-checking list as hands-on tool systematically identifying improvement options when conclude suggestions testing check-list decision aid Key words: management, future uncertainties, aid, tools practice, robust strategies, social learning

参考文章(32)
Ger Bergkamp, Brett Orlando, Ian Burton, Change: adaptation of water resources management to climate change. Change: adaptation of water resources management to climate change.. ,(2003) , 10.2305/IUCN.CH.2003.WANI.1.EN
Donald N. Michael, Learning to Plan-And Planning to Learn ,(1997)
A. Dewulf, M. Craps, R. Bouwen, T. Taillieu, C. Pahl-Wostl, Integrated management of natural resources: dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames. Water Science and Technology. ,vol. 52, pp. 115- 124 ,(2005) , 10.2166/WST.2005.0159
David M. Kreps, Notes on the theory of choice ,(1988)
Eric D. Beinhocker, The Origin of Wealth - Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics Random House Business Books. ,(2006)
Marcela Brugnach, Art Dewulf, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Tharsi Taillieu, Toward a Relational Concept of Uncertainty: about Knowing Too Little, Knowing Too Differently, and Accepting Not to Know Ecology and Society. ,vol. 13, pp. 1- 16 ,(2008) , 10.5751/ES-02616-130230
Reinhard Selten, Gerd Gigerenzer, Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox International Journal of Psychology. ,vol. 35, pp. 203- 204 ,(2000)