The impact of the future scenarios for methane and other chemically active gases on the GWP of methane

摘要: Abstract Usually for the calculation of GWP (greenhouse warming potential) a pulse in emission CO 2 and gas considered is overlayed on constant background concentration levels CH 4 , NO x . The expressed as decaying perturbation with e-folding time. Because decay dependent OH concentrations which are turn other gases, concept time not suitable to estimate GWPs into future properly. It shown by applying our time-dependent, interactive chemical radiative convective model two hemispheres oceans, that, especially because -OH feedback, can be very sensitive assumptions emissions. In this also indirect forcing altitude production tropospheric ozone (and, limitations 1D-models, stratospheric water vapor) treated self-consistently. Several scenarios studied. For example, using IPCC-B-scenario emissions methane 1989 top yields 22 an integration 20 years, while assuming lifetime only 19. A share about both cases attributed ozone. 50 years relative difference between exceeds 30%.