Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

摘要: Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in gas concentrations will alter GWPs because radiative efficiencies marginal CO2, CH4 and N2O depend their background concentrations, removal CO2 is influenced by climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, atmospheric residence times also ambient temperature other environmental changes. We calculated foreseeable future absolute GWP which acts as denominator for calculation all GWPs, specifically N2O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up year 2100. find that decreases RCPs, although longer time horizons this decrease smaller than short due increased feedbacks. The 100-year would increase 20% lowest RCP 2100 but 10% mid-century highest RCP. more 30% vary less scenarios. These not negligible mostly result from choosing a horizon or altogether comparing emissions, such global change potentials.